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Go Back   Armchair General and HistoryNet >> The Best Forums in History > Current Events > Russia, Central Asia, and The Caucasus > South Ossetian Conflict

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South Ossetian Conflict Discuss the conflict between Georgia and Russia over South Ossetia.

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  #1  
Old 20 Aug 08, 11:15
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Georgia falls victim to pipeline politics

As far as I am concerned, these pipelines are the real reasons for the Russian invasion of Georgia.

Quote:
Analysis
John Roberts
Energy security specialist, Platts


The Georgian conflict poses major challenges for governments and companies seeking to find ways of transporting Caspian oil and gas through the South Caucasus to European and Mediterranean markets.


Three pipelines that run through Georgia are now out of action.

A cluster of major pipelines pass through Georgia, some of them within a few kilometres of positions occupied by Russian forces before Moscow declared its own ceasefire on 12 August.

At present, these do not appear to be particularly threatened by the recent conflict (although all three are temporarily closed, one for reasons unrelated to the conflict. the other two as a precautionary measure).

What is at stake is the raft of plans for new pipelines and the major expansion of existing systems.


Three pipelines that run through Georgia are now out of action.
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  #2  
Old 20 Aug 08, 11:19
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Here is a good article
http://newenergynews.blogspot.com/20...es-choice.html
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  #3  
Old 20 Aug 08, 11:31
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A voice from Georgia

From a Georgian citizen

Quote:
This is not the conflict of recent days.This is a history. Russia always wanted to swollow Georgia and be the part of his country, like it was in Soviet Times. Russia cant stand that this small country declared indipendence and Georgians start to have freedom and peace by their own. No, Russia will not stop.today or tomorrow, or after 5 years this problem remians to continue and it will last for years.
at last somebody or something must make Russia STOP.

nino, Batumi, Georgia
http://newsforums.bbc.co.uk/nol/thre...20080820162340
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  #4  
Old 20 Aug 08, 11:53
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So? There tons of stuff like that from ossetia and abkhazia blaming Georgia - how is that related to the pipeline politics?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Tb...eyhan_pipeline
Although some have touted the BTC pipeline as potentially removing the dependence of the US and other Western nations on oil from the Middle East, in reality it doesn't change global dependence on Middle Eastern oil as it supplies only 1 percent of global demand during its first stage.However, the pipeline diversifies the global oil supply and so ensures, to an extent, against a failure in supply elsewhere. Critics of the pipeline - particularly Russia - are skeptical about its economic prospects and see this as politically motivated.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Supsa_Pipeline
The oil transportation by the pipeline was stopped on 21 October 2006 after abnormalities were revealed during the inspections on the pipeline. The large scale repair and replacement included replacement and re-routing of pipeline sections near Zestaponi in Georgia and Kura River crossing in Azerbaijan. Also several defects of the Soviet times sections were repaired. In total, the repair works cost US 53 million. The oil shipment restarted in June 2008.
After a major explosion and fire, which closed the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline on 6 August 2008, the Baku-Supsa Pipeline was used to re-route Azeri oil deliveries. On 12 August 2008, BP closed the pipeline for the safety reasons because of the South Ossetia conflict.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Novorossiysk_Pipeline
Although SOCAR continued decreased oil supplies through the Baku-Novorossiysk Pipeline, the Azerbaijan International Operating Company stopped using the pipeline starting from 1 April 2007. SOCAR stopped oil supplies through the pipeline starting from February 2008
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  #5  
Old 20 Aug 08, 12:08
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Question are we sure about this . . .

Emphasis added
Quote:
Analysis
John Roberts
Energy security specialist, Platts

. . .

At present, these do not appear to be particularly threatened by the recent conflict (although all three are temporarily closed, one for reasons unrelated to the conflict. the other two as a precautionary measure).

. . .
The BYC was sabotaged on Aug. 5 with credit later being claimed by the Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK]. In it's original incarnation the PKK was a leftist separatist organization supported by Moscow to undermine NATO ally Turkey. The Kremlin could easily still have significant contacts with the organization and would presumably do so as part of their HUMINT operations in Turkey.

Two other factoids that bear on this line of discussion. The estimated time to repair damage to the BYC is several weeks indicating that whoever did the damage knew what to do and how to do it.

With all of the pipline and rail links to the west out of action, Azerbijan can only ship its oil to market through Russian controlled piplines to the north.

Not sure just how many of these "coincidences" we should accept before we start to smell the borscht.
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Last edited by GCoyote; 20 Aug 08 at 12:15.. Reason: too many "t"s
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  #6  
Old 20 Aug 08, 12:58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
The BYC was sabotaged on Aug. 5 with credit later being claimed by the Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK]. In it's original incarnation the PKK was a leftist separatist organization supported by Moscow to undermine NATO ally Turkey. The Kremlin could easily still have significant contacts with the organization and would presumably do so as part of their HUMINT operations in Turkey.
Now really, I thought everybody knows that Kurds are patronized by the US, in exchange for their loyalty to the occupying US forces in Iraq (unlike Shiahs and Sunnis). This has invigorated Turkish Kurds insurgency as well, and spoiled US-Turkey relations significantly. Btw, it is one of the reasons why Turkey was very constructive towards Russia in the Georgian conflict. The other reason is that Turkey, who needs stability around the oil pipelines more than anybody else, is probably also better aware that Georgia was the real destabilizing force in this conflict.
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Old 20 Aug 08, 13:05
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GCoyote View Post
Emphasis added


The BYC was sabotaged on Aug. 5 with credit later being claimed by the Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK]. In it's original incarnation the PKK was a leftist separatist organization supported by Moscow to undermine NATO ally Turkey. The Kremlin could easily still have significant contacts with the organization and would presumably do so as part of their HUMINT operations in Turkey.

Two other factoids that bear on this line of discussion. The estimated time to repair damage to the BYC is several weeks indicating that whoever did the damage knew what to do and how to do it.

With all of the pipline and rail links to the west out of action, Azerbijan can only ship its oil to market through Russian controlled piplines to the north.

Not sure just how many of these "coincidences" we should accept before we start to smell the borscht.
I don't know...The BTC pipeline is the only major Caspian Sea export route that doesn't terminate in a Black Sea port. The only exit from the Black Sea is through the Bosporus Straits which are controlled by Turkey.



The Russian pipeline routes don't have the capacity to carry all of the current Caspian Sea production, much less the new fields that are coming on line in the area. Furthermore, most of Russsia's own oil exports have to go through the Black Sea and Bosporus Straits. These waters are already congested with tanker traffic.

If Russia is trying to force Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to use Russian pipelines to get the tarrifs...they don't have the capacity...And they are adding to the headache they already have with getting their own exports out by forcing more oil into the Black Sea routes.

Unless they are just trying to keep the Kazakh and Azeri oil off the market......If they did that, I don't doubt that the construction of the Kazakhstan-China pipeline would gain some urgency.
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Old 20 Aug 08, 20:45
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It's a little more complicated than that . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by xiong View Post
Now really, I thought everybody knows that Kurds are patronized by the US, in exchange for their loyalty to the occupying US forces in Iraq (unlike Shiahs and Sunnis). This has invigorated Turkish Kurds insurgency as well, and spoiled US-Turkey relations significantly. Btw, it is one of the reasons why Turkey was very constructive towards Russia in the Georgian conflict. The other reason is that Turkey, who needs stability around the oil pipelines more than anybody else, is probably also better aware that Georgia was the real destabilizing force in this conflict.
The US is aiding the major Iraqi Kurdish parties in order to keep them in ruling coalition and prevent major outbreaks of violence in the north. Part of the price for the bribery, err, I mean "support" we give them is that they don't help the PKK [not a big stretch as the PKK is a political competitor to the other Kurdish parties and they actually fought a few gunbattles over political turf IIRC].

Now the PKK makes some of it's income by illicit activities just like the Geogians so it is reasonable to think there is some connection there. But the Georgians really do think they should be allowed to join NATO and they can't do that if they annoy the Turks too much. So they really can't do anything overt to help the PKK that would draw attention to Georgia like say, blowing up a really big pipeline.

Georgia also loses transit fees from the much larger BYC pipeline so it seems very unlikely they'd help anyone blow it up. The only winners in the pipeline attack are the PKK, who can only hurt Turkey through economic attacks [like those against the tourist industry over the last few years] and countries that export oil - like the Russians.
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Old 21 Aug 08, 04:56
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I didn't mean Georgians wanted to disrupt the pipeline, that would be stupid.
I think PKK did it all by themselves

The pipeline is too small to affect the oil price for any oil producer to have any incentive to disrupt it.
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Old 21 Aug 08, 05:57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xiong View Post
I didn't mean Georgians wanted to disrupt the pipeline, that would be stupid.
I think PKK did it all by themselves

The pipeline is too small to affect the oil price for any oil producer to have any incentive to disrupt it.
I tend to agree that the Georgian pipelines are realtively minor...But cutting them would send a strong signal to Kazahstan and Azerbaijan - Reminding them of whose sphere influence they reside in.

Still...I have a hard time accepting that the pipelines are the main issue to Russia,
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